:Product: 20020923RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Sep 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 266 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Sep 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 119 (S14W59) continues
to slowly decay. Region 132 (N19W14) is emerging rapidly and has
more than tripled its sunspot area since yesterday. New Region 133
(S25E20) was numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. M-class activity is possible in Region 119 and, if
growth continues, Region 132.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Sep 154
Predicted   24 Sep-26 Sep  150/145/140
90 Day Mean        23 Sep 178
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Sep  004/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Sep  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Sep-26 Sep  008/008-008/008-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Sep-26 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01