:Product: 20020926RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Sep 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 269 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Sep 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity consisted of occasional low-level C-class
subflares. The majority of these were from Region 132 (N20W53),
which continues to be the largest group on the disk and also the
most complex with a beta-gamma magnetic configuration. This group
has decreased in area during the past 24 hours. Region 134 (N11E50)
showed moderate growth and managed to produce a subflare. Region 130
(N06W04) also showed growth.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low for the next three days. There is a slight chance
for an isolated M-class event from Region 132 or Region 134.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days. There is a
possibility for an increase to unsettled to active late on the third
day as a positive polarity coronal hole will be rotating into a
geoeffective position at that time.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Sep 150
Predicted   27 Sep-29 Sep  145/140/135
90 Day Mean        26 Sep 179
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Sep  001/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Sep  005/006
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Sep-29 Sep  005/007-005/007-010/007
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Sep-29 Sep
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/35
Minor storm           10/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/35
Minor storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/01/05