:Product: 20020929RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Sep 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 272 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Sep 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 134 (N12E11)
produced an M2/2n event at 29/0639 UTC and a C9/1n at 29/1449 UTC.
This region has grown slightly in white light coverage and retains a
delta magnetic configuration.  Region 125 (S09W78) produced a long
duration C7/0f event at 29/0859 UTC.  Two new regions were numbered
today as Region's 136 (S27W36) and 137 (S16E50).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 134 has the potential for producing M-class
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Active conditions are possible
for September 29 - October 1 due to a coronal hole passage.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Sep 138
Predicted   30 Sep-02 Oct  140/145/145
90 Day Mean        29 Sep 179
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Sep  005/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Sep  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Sep-02 Oct  015/015-010/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Sep-02 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           20/20/20
Major-severe storm    10/10/10