:Product: 20020930RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Sep 30 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 273 Issued at 2200Z on 30 Sep 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  29/2100Z
to 30/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 134 (N13W02)
produced an M2/1b event at 30/0150 UTC.  This region also produced
several C-class events with a C2/0f at 30/0422 UTC with an
associated Type II radio sweep.  Another Type II radio sweep was
associated with an eruptive prominence at N41W90 which occurred
between 30/0702-0732 UTC. A 9 degree filament (S09W11) disappeared
between 29/1604 UTC and 30/0518 UTC.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 134 remains capable of producing M-class
events.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 29/2100Z to 30/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has ranged from quiet to major storm
conditions.  A shock was observed on the ACE spacecraft at 30/0722
UTC and created a sudden impulse of 22 nt on the Boulder
magnetometer at 30/0822 UTC.  Another sudden impulse of 11 nt was
observed on the Boulder magnetometer at 30/1928 UTC.  This activity
is believed to be related to the M-class events which occurred on 27
September.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled with isolated active
conditions possible on 01 October.
III.  Event Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           30 Sep 140
Predicted   01 Oct-03 Oct  140/140/145
90 Day Mean        30 Sep 179
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 29 Sep  003/006
Estimated Afr/Ap 30 Sep  020/023
Predicted Afr/Ap 01 Oct-03 Oct  015/015-010/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 01 Oct-03 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05