:Product: 20021001RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Oct 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 274 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Oct 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 134 (N12W15) and
Region 137 (S18E21) both produced low C-class flares during the
period.  Region 134 continues to retain a delta magnetic
configuration and has grown in overall area coverage.  Region 137
has also grown in area coverage and developed a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration.  A new region was numbered today as Region 138
(N09W11).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 134 and 137 both have potential for producing
an M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to severe storm conditions.
Although the exact source for this activity is unknown, solar wind
data suggests a transient signature.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominately quiet to unsettled.  Active periods are
possible on 02-03 October due to several CME's observed on 30
September.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Oct 140
Predicted   02 Oct-04 Oct  140/145/145
90 Day Mean        01 Oct 178
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Sep  021/026
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Oct  030/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Oct-04 Oct  010/015-015/020-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Oct-04 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/20
Minor storm           15/20/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/40/30
Minor storm           20/25/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05