:Product: 20021002RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Oct 02 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 275 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Oct 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  01/2100Z
to 02/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Several C-class events
occurred with most from Region 137 (S18E08).  This region continues
to grow in areal coverage and spot count.  A new region was numbered
today as Region 139 (N14E72).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  A chance for an isolated M-class event exists from
Region 134 (N13W29) and Region 137.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to sever storm conditions.
The disturbance in the solar wind from yesterday continued and
sustained several hours of a southward Bz.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels through the first day of
the forecast period.  Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for
the remainder of the forecast.
III.  Event Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           02 Oct 136
Predicted   03 Oct-05 Oct  140/145/150
90 Day Mean        02 Oct 178
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 01 Oct  030/060
Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Oct  035/045
Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Oct-05 Oct  015/015-008/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Oct-05 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/20/20
Minor storm           20/05/05
Major-severe storm    10/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/25
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05