:Product: 20021003RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Oct 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 276 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Oct 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels. Region 137
(S19W05) produced an M2/1n flare and associated CME at 03/0221Z.
This region has shown little change over the past 24 hours, however,
there was indication of a delta configuration developing in the
trailing spot. Region 134 (N14W42) exhibited considerable decay. No
other significant changes observed.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 137 is the most likely candidate for M-class
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to major storm levels. A CME was
observed to pass the ACE spacecraft at around 02/2200Z. Though it
was a relatively modest shock, several extended periods of southward
IMF Bz ensued, creating the minor to major storm periods. The storm
is assumed to be associated to the CME activity observed early on 30
Sep.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to minor storm levels through the next
three days. A CME was observed early today in association with the
M2 flare in Region 137. Though most of the material appeared
southward directed, we may experience some minor effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Oct 146
Predicted   04 Oct-06 Oct  145/150/160
90 Day Mean        03 Oct 178
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Oct  031/044
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Oct  025/030
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Oct-06 Oct  018/015-015/012-015/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Oct-06 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/35/40
Minor storm           25/15/20
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/40/45
Minor storm           30/20/25
Major-severe storm    15/10/10