:Product: 20021005RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Oct 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 278 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Oct 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity reached high levels again this period.
Region 139 (N12E32) produced a major flare late in the period, an
M5/1n flare (in progress at issue time), and a Type II radio sweep
(404 km/s). The flare began at 05/2042Z and appears to have peaked
at M5.9 at 2100Z. This region also produced an M2/Sf at 04/2243Z
with associated Type II sweep (418 km/s). The rapid growth observed
yesterday has slowed considerably, and though no delta configuration
is obvious today, the region continues to grow slowly and now nears
700 millionths of white light areal coverage. Region 137 (S19W33)
produced an M1/Sf at 05/1046Z. This region has settled down after
producing four M-class flares in the last period. Some slight decay
was noted. New Regions 141 (S07E20) and 142 (N07E64) were numbered
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to continue
at moderate to high levels. M-class activity is likely from Regions
137 and 139, and there's a small chance for another major flare from
Region 139.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels. The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field continues to be
predominantly southward. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux
reached moderate to high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to continue at unsettled to minor storm levels. Transient
effects from the rather weak CMEs on 3 and 4 Oct may enhance the
disturbed periods on days one and two. A large, recurrent southern
coronal hole will move into geoeffective position late on day two
through day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
Class M    60/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Oct 155
Predicted   06 Oct-08 Oct  160/170/175
90 Day Mean        05 Oct 179
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Oct  043/048
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Oct  022/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Oct-08 Oct  020/020-020/020-025/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Oct-08 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/50/50
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/50
Minor storm           35/35/35
Major-severe storm    15/10/10