:Product: 20021006RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Oct 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 279 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Oct 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 139
(N11E19) produced two M-class flares, the largest an M2.4/1n at
06/0451 UTC.  Region 139 has shown slight decay in overall area
coverage but some area growth and mixing polarities in the leader
spots.  There has been little change in Region 137 (S19W48) over the
last 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 139 and 137 have the potential for M-class
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels.  A six-hour
period of southward Bz (02Z to 08Z) was associated with a sector
boundary crossing and resulted in active to minor storm conditions
(03Z to 09Z).  Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous
orbit reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels.  Transient effects from
weak CME activity on 04 Oct are possible on day one of the forecast
period. Coronal hole effects are expected on day one and day two of
the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Oct 162
Predicted   07 Oct-09 Oct  170/175/180
90 Day Mean        06 Oct 172
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Oct  012/029
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Oct  018/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Oct-09 Oct  020/020-025/025-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Oct-09 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/50/30
Minor storm           25/25/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/50/35
Minor storm           35/35/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/05