:Product: 20021007RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Oct 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 280 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Oct 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only a few small C-class flares
occurred. Region 139 (N11E06) remains the largest, most complex
sunspot group on the disk and continues to grow slowly. The large
leader and follower sunspot umbra are contained within the same
penumbra but do not appear to be close enough to be technically
classified as a delta configuration. New Regions 143 (S19W38) and
144 (N12E44) were numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 139 is the most likely source of M-class
activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels. The
most active periods were from 07/0300 to 0900 UTC and followed
several hours of sustained southward IMF.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to minor storm levels. A high speed coronal
hole stream may influence activity levels over the next two or three
days.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Oct 164
Predicted   08 Oct-10 Oct  165/170/175
90 Day Mean        07 Oct 172
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Oct  009/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Oct  020/035
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Oct-10 Oct  020/025-015/015-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Oct-10 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/40/30
Minor storm           25/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/40/30
Minor storm           35/30/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/01