:Product: 20021009RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Oct 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 282 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Oct 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 139 (N11W19) continues
to be relatively stable in sunspot structure and magnetic
complexity. It has not produced significant flare activity for three
days. Several new sunspot regions were numbered: 146 (S10E25), 147
(S03E39), 148 (S21E70), 149 (N16E72), 150 (S09W05), and 151
(S14E50).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 139 remains the most likely candidate for
producing M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
most active periods were from 10/0600-1200 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the first day of the forecast
period, becoming quiet to unsettled on day two and three.  Isolated
substorms remain a possibility.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Oct 167
Predicted   10 Oct-12 Oct  170/175/180
90 Day Mean        09 Oct 180
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Oct  019/034
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Oct  016/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Oct-12 Oct  015/015-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Oct-12 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/15
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/30/25
Minor storm           30/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/01/01