:Product: 20021010RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Oct 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 283 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Oct 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Only a few small C-flares
occurred. Region 139 (N11W33) remains the largest sunspot group but
has not produced significant activity. The region appears to have
changed little. New Regions 153 (S05E47) and 154 (S12E68) were
numbered.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 139 is the most likely source of M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active becoming quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
Class M    40/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Oct 172
Predicted   11 Oct-13 Oct  175/180/185
90 Day Mean        10 Oct 181
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Oct  009/022
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Oct  010/020
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Oct-13 Oct  010/015-010/010-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Oct-13 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/15/10
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01