:Product: 20021011RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Oct 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 284 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Oct 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The most interesting event of
the period was a long-duration C3/Sf event at 11/1719 UTC, with an
associated bright prominence on the west limb near S15.  The
presumed source is Region 143 (S16, L=017), which had rotated beyond
the west limb early in the period.  Region 139 (N09W46) was a source
of some lesser C-class activity during the period, and remains the
largest sunspot group on the visible disk, with moderate but stable
complexity in its delta magnetic configuration.  Region 149 (N15E48)
has exhibited some growth and produced two C-class flares during the
period.  Two new regions emerged on the disk and were numbered
today:  155 (S09W53) and 156 (N09E10).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Regions 139 and 149 are both potential sources of
isolated moderate flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels but
remained below event threshold.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Oct 179
Predicted   12 Oct-14 Oct  180/185/180
90 Day Mean        11 Oct 181
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Oct  010/023
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Oct  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Oct-14 Oct  010/010-008/010-008/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Oct-14 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01