:Product: 20021013RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Oct 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 286 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Oct 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest event of the
period was an unusual flare from the spotless plage of Region 150
(S09W48):  a C4/1F event, with associated Type II/IV radio sweeps,
at 13/1757 UTC.  Estimated Type-II sweep velocity was 448 km/s.
SOHO/LASCO imagery was not available for further analysis of any
associated CME activity.  Region 149 (N16E20) produced a weak
C-flare earlier in the period.  New Region 159 (S12E73) was numbered
today, appearing as a negative-polarity single spot some distance
behind the similarly configured Region 158 (S09E62), which rotated
into view yesterday.  Limb proximity prevents further analysis.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low.  A chance for isolated M-class activity still
exists for Region 149 and Region 139 (N08W72).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again
today and briefly exceeded event threshold.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  A slight chance for elevated
activity exists for day three, in association with the possible CME
activity discussed in section 1A above.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
Class M    25/25/20
Class X    05/01/01
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Oct 179
Predicted   14 Oct-16 Oct  180/175/175
90 Day Mean        13 Oct 182
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Oct  006/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Oct  006/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Oct-16 Oct  007/008-007/008-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Oct-16 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/15/20
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/20/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01