:Product: 20021014RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Oct 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 287 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Oct 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate.  A long-duration
M2/Sf event occurred early in the period peaking at 14/0010 UTC,
from bright plage just east of the large spot in Region 159
(S11E57).  This event was accompanied by a large CME evident in
SOHO/LASCO imagery, with an estimated plane-of-sky velocity of about
850 km/s.  Region 159 also produced a C4/Sf event at 14/0945 UTC.  A
Type-II radio sweep of estimated velocity 743 km/s was observed at
14/1429 UTC, in association with a small impulsive C1 flare, and
followed shortly thereafter by a very long-lived enhancement in
x-ray flux that began at about 14/1520 UTC, and remained in progress
at the end of the period.  Available H-alpha imagery revealed no
apparent source for this activity, and SOHO EIT and LASCO data were
mostly unavailable for the period.  The lack of subsequent particle
enhancement from this potential CME event seems to suggest an
east-limb source for this activity.  New Region 160 (S20E54) was
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to major storm levels.  An
extended interval of active conditions, with an isolated period of
major storming at high latitudes, appeared to occur primarily due to
a sustained strong southward orientation of Bz, and a slow increase
in solar wind speed.  Other solar wind data suggest an overall
pattern of a CIR evolving toward to a weak high speed stream pattern
near the end of the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active for the early part of the forecast
period, with mostly quiet to unsettled conditions by the end of day
one and into day two.  By day three, some CME passage effects may
occur in response to the solar activity described above, and may
cause isolated active or minor storm conditions by the end of the
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Oct 181
Predicted   15 Oct-17 Oct  175/175/165
90 Day Mean        14 Oct 182
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Oct  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Oct  017/026
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Oct-17 Oct  015/018-012/012-015/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Oct-17 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/30
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/35
Minor storm           10/05/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05