:Product: 20021016RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Oct 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 289 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Oct 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  The largest flare of
the period was a C7/Sf flare from Region 160 (S20E28) that occurred
at 16/0314 UTC.  This region has seen steady growth in penumbral
coverage today.  Region 149 (N14W20) produced only lesser C-class
flares during the period.  There was slight growth observed in total
number of spots today in this region and the beta-gamma magnetic
structure became more apparent during the period.  An optically
uncorrelated long duration C6 x-ray flare occurred at 16/1627 UTC.
There were insufficient imagery at the time of this writing to
determine whether a CME was associated with this event.  No new
regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with an isolated
period of minor storm conditions at high latitudes between
16/1800-2100 UTC.  The Advanced Composition Explorer (ACE) satellite
hinted at the possibility of a weak shock passage commencing shortly
after 16/1600 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominantly quiet to unsettled levels with
periods of active conditions possible throughout the forecast
period.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Oct 183
Predicted   17 Oct-19 Oct  180/175/175
90 Day Mean        16 Oct 182
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Oct  013/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Oct  012/014
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Oct-19 Oct  010/012-010/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Oct-19 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/30/25
Minor storm           05/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/05/01