:Product: 20021017RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Oct 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 290 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Oct 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 158 (S08E11)
produced the largest flare of the period which was a C3.5/Sf that
occurred at 17/1207 UTC.  Penumbral growth was seen in the trailing
cluster of spots in this northeast-southwest orientated spot
complex.  A weak gamma magnetic structure also became evident today.
Several lesser C-class flares were also attributed to this region.
Region 149 (N14W33) showed slight decay and produced a single
optically correlated long duration event, flare maximum reached
C3.0/Sf at 17/1805 UTC.  Weak magnetic gamma structure seen
yesterday is no longer apparent.  New region 162 (N25E76) was
assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 149 and 158 are capable of producing low level
M-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at quiet to active levels.  An
isolated active period occurred between 17/0000-0300 UTC at high
latitudes.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field activity
is expected to be predominantly quiet to unsettled.  Active
conditions are possible on day one due to elevated solar wind speed.
Day three may see active conditions in response to a relatively
small, yet favorably positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Oct 179
Predicted   18 Oct-20 Oct  185/185/180
90 Day Mean        17 Oct 182
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Oct  009/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Oct  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Oct-20 Oct  010/015-008/012-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Oct-20 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/20
Minor storm           05/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/30
Minor storm           10/05/10
Major-severe storm    05/01/05