:Product: 20021018RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Oct 18 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 291 Issued at 2200Z on 18 Oct 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  17/2100Z
to 18/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 162 (N25E71)
produced the majority of the optically observed flare activity
today, the largest was a C4/Sf event at 18/1927 UTC.  The large
cluster of spots seen in white-light appears to be all one region
(based on current available magnetic data) although the regions
proximity to the limb hinders any certainty at this time.  Region
149 (N14W46) produced only minor B and C-class flares today.
Magnetic analysis shows the return of the weak gamma magnetic
structure that once again has become apparent.  No other significant
changes were seen in the region since yesterday.  Region 158
(S08W02) produced a single optically correlated flare, a C1/Sf at
18/0703 UTC.  This region retains a beta-gamma magnetic structure
and underwent little change during the period.  Newly numbered
region 163 (S21W10) was assigned today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low to moderate levels.  Region 162 may have the potential of
producing isolated M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 17/2100Z to 18/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field activity was at predominantly quiet to
unsettled levels with an isolated period of active conditions
between 18/1500-1800 UTC due in part to the elevated solar wind
speeds (550-650 km/s).  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit reached moderate levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at predominately quiet to unsettled levels with a
chance of isolated active conditions on days one and two due to the
elevated solar wind speeds and a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           18 Oct 173
Predicted   19 Oct-21 Oct  175/175/180
90 Day Mean        18 Oct 182
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 17 Oct  008/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 18 Oct  010/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 19 Oct-21 Oct  008/012-010/012-006/008
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 19 Oct-21 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/15
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01