:Product: 20021022RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Oct 22 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 295 Issued at 2200Z on 22 Oct 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  21/2100Z
to 22/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 162
(N27E22) produced an M1/Sf flare at 22/1535 UTC.  Region 162
continues to grow and has developed a beta-gamma-delta magnetic
configuration in the trailing spot.  Region 160 (S20W56) has shown a
decrease in area coverage and spot count in the past 24 hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 162 has M-class potential.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 21/2100Z to 22/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  One period
on isolated active conditions was observed at 22/09-12 UTC.  Solar
wind velocity continues to gradually decrease, ending the period
near 450 km/s.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active conditions are
possible on day one due to the M1/Type II event on 20 October.
III.  Event Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           22 Oct 169
Predicted   23 Oct-25 Oct  170/170/165
90 Day Mean        22 Oct 181
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 21 Oct  007/011
Estimated Afr/Ap 22 Oct  009/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 23 Oct-25 Oct  012/020-010/015-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 23 Oct-25 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/25
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/01/01