:Product: 20021023RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Oct 23 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 296 Issued at 2200Z on 23 Oct 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  22/2100Z
to 23/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. An unobserved C6 x-ray flare at
0232UTC was the most energetic event of the day. Region 162 (N26E10)
continues to dominate the disk. Although its plage forms one
contiguous field, there are indications that the region may contain
two bipoles. The westernmost large spot shows hints of a contained
magnetic structure, while the easternmost spots, although
unorganized, have a distinctive bipolar topology. The region may be
reclassified, pending further evolutionary changes. Elsewhere, two
new regions, 166 (S06E08) and 167 (N18E75), were assigned.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 22/2100Z to 23/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to mildly active. The greater than 2
MeV electrons at GOES were at high levels during the period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be generally unsettled, with an increasing chance of
active levels near the end of the interval. Effects of a high speed
solar wind stream may be seen on 26 October.
III.  Event Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           23 Oct 164
Predicted   24 Oct-26 Oct  165/160/160
90 Day Mean        23 Oct 180
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 22 Oct  010/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 23 Oct  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 24 Oct-26 Oct  010/015-010/010-010/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 24 Oct-26 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/25
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05