:Product: 20021024RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Oct 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 297 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Oct 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 162 (N26W04) produced
the largest of the few flares occurring today, an impulsive C7/1n at
1810UTC. Modest discrete frequency bursts and a type IV sweep
accompanied the flare. The flare site was just west of the large
leader spot, far from the seemingly more complicated central portion
of this elongated group. The serpentine plage field spans the full
extent of the region. Two new regions were assigned, Region 168
(N24W66) and 169 (S19E75).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels during
the past 24 hours. The disturbance was fueled by  high speed solar
wind (approx. 700 km/s), emanating from a large coronal hole in the
western solar hemisphere. The speed began to increase substantially
around 0800UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels for the next 24
hours, as the high speed solar wind continues to buffet the
magnetosphere. Conditions are then expected return to more normal
levels during the last 48 hours, as the solar wind calms.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Oct 160
Predicted   25 Oct-27 Oct  160/155/155
90 Day Mean        24 Oct 179
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Oct  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Oct  030/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Oct-27 Oct  020/025-015/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Oct-27 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/40/25
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                60/50/30
Minor storm           25/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05