:Product: 20021025RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Oct 25 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 298 Issued at 2200Z on 25 Oct 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  24/2100Z
to 25/2100Z:  Solar activity increased to moderate levels.  Region
162 (N26W18) produced a long duration M1.5/1f event at 25/1747 UTC
along with multiple C-class flares today.  The M1.5/1f flare
produced an associated Type II (estimated shock velocity of 389
km/s) and a Type IV radio sweep.  SOHO/LASCO imagery was
insufficient at the time of this writing to determine whether an
earth-directed CME accompanied this flare.  This region retains a
small delta magnetic structure that has underwent slight decay since
yesterday.  A disappearing solar filament (approximately 67
heliographic degrees) was seen to dissipate around 25/0600 UTC in
the southeast quadrant of the disk.  Two separate H-class spot
groups were newly assigned today, Regions 170 (S12E65) and 171
(N10E76).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
moderate levels due to the magnetic complexity of Region 162.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 24/2100Z to 25/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to major storm levels.  The
large coronal hole in the western solar hemisphere continues to
elevate the high speed solar wind (approximate average speed of 700
km/s).  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit
reached moderate levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to minor storm levels.  The coronal hole
high speed stream effects should persist through day one and into
day two of the forecast period, returning to predominantly quiet to
unsettled conditions by day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           25 Oct 173
Predicted   26 Oct-28 Oct  170/170/170
90 Day Mean        25 Oct 179
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 24 Oct  022/047
Estimated Afr/Ap 25 Oct  035/040
Predicted Afr/Ap 26 Oct-28 Oct  025/025-015/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 26 Oct-28 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/25/20
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    05/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                50/30/25
Minor storm           15/15/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01