:Product: 20021026RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Oct 26 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 299 Issued at 2200Z on 26 Oct 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  25/2100Z
to 26/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Very little activity of any
type occurred. Region 162 (N26W27) still dominates the disk, but has
been largely quiet since the M1/1f event of 25/1747 UTC. The
remainder of the disk and limbs have been quiet and stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 25/2100Z to 26/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to minor storm levels. The high
speed solar wind stream continues to cause activity, but less
pronounced than before. The solar wind radial speed is near 550 km/s
(down from 750 km/s), and the disturbance is subsiding as a
consequence.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at unsettled to active levels for the next 72 hours.
The CME activity on 25 October may cause a slight increase in
activity on 28 October, as only a glancing blow -- if any -- is
anticipated. The solar wind should gradually return to normal
conditions as the interval ends.
III.  Event Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           26 Oct 158
Predicted   27 Oct-29 Oct  155/155/155
90 Day Mean        26 Oct 178
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 25 Oct  022/040
Estimated Afr/Ap 26 Oct  015/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 27 Oct-29 Oct  015/015-015/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 27 Oct-29 Oct
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/35/25
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/30
Minor storm           25/25/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/05