:Product: 20021101RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Nov 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 305 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Nov 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  31/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Several low to mid
C-class flares were observed during the period.  Region 175 (N15E18)
and Region 177 (N15E43) were responsible for the majority of the
events.  Region 177 has doubled in area and sunspot count in the
last 24 hours and is now averaging around 310 millionths white light
area with 15 spots.  Two new regions were numbered today as Region
179 (N02E72) and 180 (S11E70).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 175 and 177 have the potential to produce an
isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 31/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field has been quiet to unsettled.  The greater than
2 MeV electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for 2 November.  Unsettled to
active conditions are possible on 3-4 November due to the effects of
a recurring coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Nov 162
Predicted   02 Nov-04 Nov  170/175/180
90 Day Mean        01 Nov 172
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 31 Oct  013/018
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Nov  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Nov-04 Nov  010/012-015/020-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Nov-04 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/35/35
Minor storm           10/20/20
Major-severe storm    05/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/40/40
Minor storm           20/25/25
Major-severe storm    10/10/10