:Product: 20021102RSGA.txt :Issued: 2002 Nov 02 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 306 Issued at 2200Z on 02 Nov 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: Solar activity has been low. An optically uncorrelated long duration C3 event occurred at 02/0607 UTC. The LASCO/SOHO imagery indicate the possible source as being a CME observed just over the NW limb which does not appear to be Earth directed. Region 177 (N16E31) remains the largest sunspot group on the visible disk and has grown slightly since yesterday. Two new regions were numbered today as Region 181 (S06E42) and 182 (S17E68). IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate. Region 177 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class event. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 01/2100Z to 02/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels with an isolated period of minor storm conditions at 02/1200 UTC. A steady increase in the solar wind with intermittent periods of southward Bz allowed for the minor storming observed today. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be predominately unsettled to active for the next three days in response to a recurring coronal hole. III. Event Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov Class M 45/45/45 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 02 Nov 165 Predicted 03 Nov-05 Nov 170/175/175 90 Day Mean 02 Nov 175 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 01 Nov 005/010 Estimated Afr/Ap 02 Nov 020/020 Predicted Afr/Ap 03 Nov-05 Nov 020/025-015/025-010/020 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 03 Nov-05 Nov A. Middle Latitudes Active 35/35/30 Minor storm 20/20/10 Major-severe storm 10/10/05 B. High Latitudes Active 40/40/35 Minor storm 25/25/20 Major-severe storm 10/10/10