:Product: 20021103RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Nov 03 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 307 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Nov 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  02/2100Z
to 03/2100Z:  Solar activity has been moderate.  Region 177 (N16E18)
produced an M1/1f event at 03/1403 UTC.  This region remains the
largest and most complex of the numbered regions on the solar disk
and contains a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  Region 180
(S10E43) has grown in spot count since yesterday and also contains a
beta-gamma magnetic configuration.  Three new regions were numbered
today as Region 183 (N19W24), 184 (S06E51), and 185 (S12E77).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 177 and 180 have potential for producing an
M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from unsettled to minor storm
conditions.  The solar wind data indicates the possible effects are
from a high speed stream associated with a coronal hole.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active on 04 November with predominately
quiet to unsettled conditions for 05-06 November.
III.  Event Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           03 Nov 169
Predicted   04 Nov-06 Nov  170/170/175
90 Day Mean        03 Nov 176
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 02 Nov  013/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Nov  020/025
Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Nov-06 Nov  015/020-010/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Nov-06 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                35/30/30
Minor storm           20/10/10
Major-severe storm    10/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/35/30
Minor storm           25/20/10
Major-severe storm    10/10/05