:Product: 20021107RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Nov 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 311 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Nov 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Region 177 (N18W36) is in decay
phase, but produced a C7/Sf flare at 06/2316Z. Region 180 (S10W14)
continues to grow and now maintains three different delta
configurations in a spot group nearing 600 millionths of areal
coverage. Despite its size and apparent complexity, this region has
been relatively quiet, producing only occasional C-class flares. New
region 190 (S22E54) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Regions 180 and 177 have potential to produce M-class
flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to active. Coronal hole high speed
stream flow is declining, following peak speeds that exceeded 600
km/s. The sustained southward IMF Bz that persisted for the past few
days also appears to have ended. The greater than 2 MeV electrons at
geosynchronous orbit have again reached high levels.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with isolated active periods
during local nighttime hours. We are expecting to transition back
into a high speed stream on day three as a recurrent coronal hole
rotates into a geoeffective position.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Nov 190
Predicted   08 Nov-10 Nov  190/190/185
90 Day Mean        07 Nov 178
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Nov  012/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Nov  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Nov-10 Nov  008/010-008/010-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Nov-10 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/20/40
Minor storm           10/10/20
Major-severe storm    05/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/25/50
Minor storm           15/10/30
Major-severe storm    05/05/15