:Product: 20021108RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Nov 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 312 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Nov 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Several C-class flares
occurred, mostly in Region 180 (S10W28). This region remains
relatively large and magnetically complex. Other disk regions were
quiet. New Region 191 (S17E74) is rotating into view.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 180 is the most likely source of M-class flares.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux at geosynchronous orbit was moderate to high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to become unsettled to active by 10 November due to a
coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Nov 189
Predicted   09 Nov-11 Nov  190/185/185
90 Day Mean        08 Nov 178
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Nov  010/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Nov  008/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Nov-11 Nov  008/010-015/020-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Nov-11 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/20/20
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/25
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/10/10