:Product: 20021109RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Nov 09 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 313 Issued at 2200Z on 09 Nov 2002
::::::::CORRECTED COPY::::::::
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  08/2100Z
to 09/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 180 (S10W41)
produced an M4/2B flare at 09/1323 UTC. The flare was accompanied by
type II/IV radio sweeps, a 760 sfu burst at 2695 MHz, and an
apparent earth-directed CME. Otherwise only C-class flares occurred,
mostly in Region 180 but also from Region 191 (S17E63).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. Region 180 is the most likely source of energetic
flares with a slight chance of M-level activity in 191.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 08/2100Z to 09/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The field became
somewhat disturbed after 09/1800 UTC in response to a shock observed
in the solar wind at about 09/1755 UTC. Further analysis of the
solar wind data since 09/2100 UTC suggests that this structure is
CME material rather than related to a high-speed stream as suggested
in the original filing of this report. A greater than 10 MeV proton
event began at 09/1920 UTC, following the M4 flare mentioned in Part
IA, and remains in progress. The current greater than 10 MeV proton
flux is about 30 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit was moderate to high.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mostly unsettled for the next 24-36 hours. Active
conditions are expected late on 11 November in response to the
M4/CME which occurred today. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is
expected to continue.
III.  Event Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     90/10/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           09 Nov 191
Predicted   10 Nov-12 Nov  185/180/180
90 Day Mean        09 Nov 178
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 08 Nov  003/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 09 Nov  008/012
Predicted Afr/Ap 10 Nov-12 Nov  010/012-015/015-020/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 10 Nov-12 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/20/30
Minor storm           05/10/20
Major-severe storm    01/05/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/25/35
Minor storm           10/15/25
Major-severe storm    01/05/10