:Product: 20021110RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Nov 10 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 314 Issued at 2200Z on 10 Nov 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  09/2100Z
to 10/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 180 (S11W55)
produced an M2/2n at 10/0321 UTC. This region seems to have
simplified a little over the past 48 hours but still remains
relatively large and magnetically complex. Region 191 (S18E51)
produced a few C-class flares, the largest being a C5/Sf at 10/1136
UTC. This sunspot group is of comparable size to Region 180 but so
far does not seem to be as magnetically complex.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. M-class flares are possible in both Regions 180 and 191.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 09/2100Z to 10/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels. The
CME material noted yesterday appears to have passed. The greater
than 10 MeV proton event remains in progress (start--09/1920 UTC and
404 pfu peak at 10/0540 UTC). The current proton flux is about 40
pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 12-24 hours. A shock
is expected to arrive by the latter half of UTC 11 November in
response to yesterday's M4/CME event.  Active to storm conditions
are expected following the shock arrival.  The greater than 10 MeV
proton event is expected to continue and proton fluxes may briefly
increase as the shock passes.
III.  Event Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     90/10/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           10 Nov 191
Predicted   11 Nov-13 Nov  190/185/180
90 Day Mean        10 Nov 178
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 09 Nov  003/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 10 Nov  012/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 11 Nov-13 Nov  015/018-020/025-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 11 Nov-13 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                50/60/40
Minor storm           10/20/10
Major-severe storm    05/10/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                60/60/50
Minor storm           15/25/15
Major-severe storm    05/15/05