:Product: 20021111RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Nov 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 315 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Nov 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate. Region 180 (S11W69)
produced two M-class flares, an M2/2N at 11/0733 UTC and an M1/1N at
11/1620 UTC. The M1 flare was of fairly long duration and was
accompanied by a type II sweep. Although the region appears to have
simplified a little from the recent activity, it still retains
moderate size and magnetic complexity. Region 191 (S18E39) is the
largest sunspot group presently on the disk but has been relatively
quiet over the past 24 hours. New Region 192 (N13E08) emerged on the
disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate. Region 180 remains the most likely source of M-class
flares and Region 191 appears capable of an M-flare as well.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. The greater than 10 MeV
proton event ended at 11/0525 UTC. The event began at 09/1920 UTC
and had a 404 pfu peak at 10/0540 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next few hours. The
arrival of a shock from the M4/CME flare that occurred on 09
November is still possible. Active to storm conditions are possible
on 12 November if this CME impacts the Earth. SOHO-LASCO images
received after the three-day geomagnetic forecast was finalized
suggest that another CME was associated with the M1/1n flare
mentioned in Part IA. Consequently, the numerical and probability
forecasts for the third day in Parts V and VI  below may be modified
in tomorrow's forecast product.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
Class M    80/70/50
Class X    10/05/01
Proton     10/05/01
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Nov 185
Predicted   12 Nov-14 Nov  180/175/170
90 Day Mean        11 Nov 178
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Nov  012/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Nov  008/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Nov-14 Nov  020/025-010/015-008/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Nov-14 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                60/40/15
Minor storm           20/10/05
Major-severe storm    10/05/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                60/50/20
Minor storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    15/10/05