:Product: 20021114RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Nov 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 318 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Nov 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  The largest event was a
long duration M1.0 x-ray flare, observed early in the period at
14/0017 UTC, accompanied by an extended parallel ribbon enhancement
visible in H-alpha imagery in the central and southeast portion of
Region 191 (S18W01).  A partial halo CME was evident in LASCO
imagery following the flare, but did not appear to be
earth-directed.  Region 191 appears to have developed a weak delta
configuration among its intermediate spots in the last 24 hours.
Region 192 (N13W34) exhibited moderate growth today and produced a
C-class flare late in the period.  Region 195 (S16E65) produced
several C-class events, the largest being a C8/1n at 14/1345 UTC.
Two new regions were numbered today:  196 (S19W46) and 197 (N25E73).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, with a slight chance for a major flare during the next
three days.  Regions 191 and 192 are potential sources of
significant flare activity.  In addition, Region 197 appears bright
in EIT imagery and is expected to rotate into full view as a large
region with good flare potential.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels throughout the
period.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to become more active over the course of the forecast
period with isolated minor storm periods possible, due to the
anticipated influence of a coronal hole rotating into geoeffective
heliographic longitudes.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Nov 184
Predicted   15 Nov-17 Nov  185/185/185
90 Day Mean        14 Nov 177
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Nov  016/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Nov  010/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Nov-17 Nov  015/020-020/030-018/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Nov-17 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/40/35
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/45/30
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05