:Product: 20021115RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Nov 15 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 319 Issued at 2200Z on 15 Nov 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  14/2100Z
to 15/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate due to the occurrence of
two M-class events, the first being an impulsive M1.0 flare observed
at 14/2226 UTC.  No corresponding optical report was received,
however available H-alpha imagery suggests Region 195 (S15E53) as
the likely source.  This region appears to be developing a delta
configuration in its leading spot, and has grown in size and spot
count.  At 15/0124 UTC, an optically uncorrelated M2.4 flare
occurred.  LASCO imagery following this event suggests an east limb
source, possibly the newly numbered Region 198 (S16E78), which has
just rotated into view.  Other activity included a series of C-class
events from Region 192 (N13W47), the largest being a C8/Sf at
15/0536 UTC.  This region has exhibited significant growth in size
and complexity over the past two days.  Region 191 (S18W16) remains
the largest and most complex region on the visible disk, but
produced only minor C-class activity today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
moderate, with a chance for isolated major flare activity over the
next three days.  The regions discussed in section 1A above are all
likely candidates for notable flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 14/2100Z to 15/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active with isolated minor storm periods
possible during the first two days of the forecast period, under the
influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole.  Predominantly
unsettled conditions are expected by day three, along with elevated
flux levels for energetic electrons in the wake of the expected
coronal hole effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
Class M    75/75/75
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       yellow
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           15 Nov 198
Predicted   16 Nov-18 Nov  200/200/195
90 Day Mean        15 Nov 177
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 14 Nov  005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 15 Nov  010/011
Predicted Afr/Ap 16 Nov-18 Nov  020/030-018/025-015/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 16 Nov-18 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/35/25
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/01