:Product: 20021117RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Nov 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 321 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Nov 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was at moderate levels.  Region 198
(S18E55) produced an M2/Sf at 1454 UTC.  Region 198 has grown
significantly in penumbral coverage in the last 24 hours.  Some weak
mixing appears to be visible but better magnetic resolution, as the
region rotates further onto the visible disk, is needed to clarify
this.  Region 191 (S18W41) has been relatively stable since
yesterday, producing only minor C-class activity.  Region 195
(S17E28) has simplified to a beta magnetic configuration and
produced little activity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 191 and Region 198 have good M-class potential.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled conditions.  NASA/ACE
spacecraft indicates the possible development of a transient shock.
A sharp rise in low energy protons (EPAM instrument) was observed
early on 17 November to near 10^4 pfu.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Transient shock effects are
possible early in the forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
Class M    55/55/55
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Nov 185
Predicted   18 Nov-20 Nov  190/180/175
90 Day Mean        17 Nov 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Nov  003/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Nov  007/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Nov-20 Nov  012/010-010/010-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Nov-20 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/15
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    05/05/05