:Product: 20021121RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Nov 21 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 325 Issued at 2200Z on 21 Nov 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  20/2100Z
to 21/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Multiple C-class
flares were observed today, all from Region 198 (S18E02).  The
largest flare was a C6.6/Sf that occurred at 21/1104 UTC.  Magnetic
complexity and white-light spot coverage went mostly unchanged
today.  Region 195 (S17W24) continues to undergo a slow but steady
decay.  A small cluster of umbra materialized today between the two
previously mentioned regions becoming newly numbered Region 201
(S16W09).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected at low to
moderate levels.  Region 198 remains capable of producing M-class
flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 20/2100Z to 21/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly at active to minor storm
levels.  Isolated major storm conditions were seen at all latitudes
and a period of severe storm levels were observed at high latitudes
between 21/0600 to 0900 UTC.  Elevated geomagnetic activity is in
response to a favorably positioned recurrent coronal hole.  The
greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached
moderate levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at active to minor storm levels.  Isolated major
storm to severe storm conditions (mostly at high latitudes) are
possible through day one.  A steady return to quiet to unsettled
conditions should occur during the remainder of the forecast period.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit should
reach moderate to high levels by day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           21 Nov 151
Predicted   22 Nov-24 Nov  150/150/155
90 Day Mean        21 Nov 173
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 20 Nov  013/017
Estimated Afr/Ap 21 Nov  035/055
Predicted Afr/Ap 22 Nov-24 Nov  025/035-015/020-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 22 Nov-24 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                40/30/20
Minor storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    20/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                45/35/25
Minor storm           25/15/10
Major-severe storm    20/15/05