:Product: 20021124RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Nov 24 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 328 Issued at 2200Z on 24 Nov 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  23/2100Z
to 24/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low.  Region 198 (S18W36)
produced a long duration C1/Sf event at 24/1809 UTC.  This region
remains mostly unchanged and continues to maintain its beta-gamma
magnetic configuration.  A new region was numbered today as Region
202 (N14E66).
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Region 198 has the potential to produce an isolated M-class event.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 23/2100Z to 24/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels.  The greater
than 2 MeV electron flux at geosychronous orbit reached high levels
today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    10/10/10
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           24 Nov 146
Predicted   25 Nov-27 Nov  150/155/160
90 Day Mean        24 Nov 172
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 23 Nov  010/019
Estimated Afr/Ap 24 Nov  018/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 25 Nov-27 Nov  010/012-010/012-008/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 25 Nov-27 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/10/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05