:Product: 20021127RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Nov 27 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 331 Issued at 2200Z on 27 Nov 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  26/2100Z
to 27/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The largest event of the
period was a C6/Sf from Region 198 (S18W75) at 27/0119 UTC.  Four
new regions were numbered today.  Of these, new Region 207 (S19E69)
is the largest and most complex, and produced five subfaint C-class
flares today.  The smaller and somewhat less complex new Region 204
(N16E40) produced two similar events during the period.  The other
new and existing regions on the visible disk are all small and
simply structured spot groups, and produced no observed flares
today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate.  Region 198 remains a potential source of M-class
activity until it transits the west limb on day two of the forecast
period.  Region 207 appears to present an additional possible source
of moderate flare activity for the period.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 26/2100Z to 27/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to minor storm levels.  An
interplanetary shock passage was observed on the ACE spacecraft at
26/2110 UTC, in likely association with the CME activity that
occurred on 24 November.  A geomagnetic sudden impulse was observed
at 26/2150 UTC (18 nT on the Boulder magnetometer) and was followed
by an isolated period of minor storming at mid and high latitudes.
Predominantly active conditions followed and persisted for most of
the remaining summary period, dropping to mainly unsettled levels
near the end.  The greater than 2 MeV electron flux at
geosynchronous orbit saw a tenfold decrease from the high values
observed yesterday.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active periods
are possible for the next 24-48 hours as the current geomagnetic
storm activity continues to wane.
III.  Event Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
Class M    40/40/40
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           27 Nov 143
Predicted   28 Nov-30 Nov  150/155/160
90 Day Mean        27 Nov 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 26 Nov  006/014
Estimated Afr/Ap 27 Nov  015/024
Predicted Afr/Ap 28 Nov-30 Nov  012/015-012/015-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 28 Nov-30 Nov
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/25
Minor storm           10/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01