:Product: 20021128RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Nov 28 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 332 Issued at 2200Z on 28 Nov 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  27/2100Z
to 28/2100Z:  Solar activity has been low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity consisted of occasional C-class flares from Region
198 (S17W84) and Region 207 (S19E59). The largest event of the day
was a C8/Sf at 1136 UTC from Region 198. Region 198 has nearly
rotated off the west limb. Region 207 exhibited frequent plage
brightenings throughout the period and is now the dominant region on
the solar disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low, but there is a fair chance for an isolated M-class event
during the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 27/2100Z to 28/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field ranged from quiet to active levels during the
past 24 hours. Solar wind data show the continuation of enhanced
solar wind speed, and a weak but steadily southward orientation of
the interplanetary magnetic field.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled with occasional active periods during the
next 24 hours as the current disturbance subsides. Predominantly
unsettled conditions are expected on the second and third days.
III.  Event Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           28 Nov 140
Predicted   29 Nov-01 Dec  140/140/145
90 Day Mean        28 Nov 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 27 Nov  013/021
Estimated Afr/Ap 28 Nov  013/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 29 Nov-01 Dec  012/015-012/012-010/012
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 29 Nov-01 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/40/25
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                40/40/25
Minor storm           20/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/05/05