:Product: 20021129RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Nov 29 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 333 Issued at 2200Z on 29 Nov 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  28/2100Z
to 29/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours. Only
two C-class flares were observed, both from Region 207 (S19E44). The
largest was a C3 at 28/2244 UTC. Region 207 is the largest region on
the disk, but has a relatively simple magnetic configuration. New
Region 208 (N10E74) rotated into view today as a simple D-type
group. A CME was observed to erupt off the south pole at 0054 UTC,
but the lack of corresponding disk signatures suggests that this was
a back-sided event.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low during the next three days. There is a chance, however,
for an isolated M-class event, with Region 207 the most likely
source region.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 28/2100Z to 29/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was mostly quiet to unsettled, with a few
active periods. Solar wind velocity remains enhanced and the
interplanetary magnetic field continues to have significant
intervals of weakly southward orientation. The greater than 2 MeV
electron fluxes reached high levels during the past 24 hours.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be unsettled to active for the next three days, with a
chance for some isolated storm intervals. The increase is predicted
because of expected effects from a high speed solar wind stream
associated with a favorably positioned coronal hole.
III.  Event Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           29 Nov 141
Predicted   30 Nov-02 Dec  140/145/155
90 Day Mean        29 Nov 171
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 28 Nov  010/015
Estimated Afr/Ap 29 Nov  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 30 Nov-02 Dec  015/015-015/015-015/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 30 Nov-02 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                45/45/45
Minor storm           15/15/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/10
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/35/35
Minor storm           25/25/25
Major-severe storm    15/15/15