:Product: 20021201RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Dec 01 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 335 Issued at 2200Z on 01 Dec 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  30/2100Z
to 01/2100Z:  Solar activity was low during the past 24 hours.
Today's activity was characterized by occasional C-class subflares.
The largest of these was a C5/Sf at 1528 UTC from Region 208
(N10E49). Region 208 exhibited the brightest plage of the five
spotted groups on the disk, and it has some mixed magnetic
polarities within an overall bipolar structure. Region 207 (S19E20)
continues to be the largest region on the disk but was quiet and
stable.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
mostly low. There is a slight chance, however, for an isolated
M-class event over the next three days from Regions 207 and 208.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 30/2100Z to 01/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to active levels during the
past 24 hours. The high speed solar wind with weakly negative Bz
continues in progress. The greater than 2 MeV electron fluxes
reached high levels today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic activity is
expected to persist at unsettled to active levels over the next two
days. A decrease to mostly unsettled levels is expected by the third
day.
III.  Event Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           01 Dec 150
Predicted   02 Dec-04 Dec  155/160/165
90 Day Mean        01 Dec 170
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 30 Nov  014/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 01 Dec  014/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 02 Dec-04 Dec  012/020-012/020-010/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 02 Dec-04 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/25/20
Minor storm           15/15/10
Major-severe storm    05/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/30/30
Minor storm           20/20/15
Major-severe storm    10/10/05