:Product: 20021203RSGA.txt :Issued: 2002 Dec 03 2200 UTC # Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, # Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force. # Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity SDF Number 337 Issued at 2200Z on 03 Dec 2002 IA. Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: Solar activity was low. Region 208 (N11E22) produced the largest event of the period, an impulsive C8/Sn flare at 03/0818 UTC. This region has declined in penumbral area but retains moderate magnetic complexity. Region 207 (S19W06) produced a few B-class events over the course of the day. New Region 213 (N15E79) rotated into view and was numbered today. IB. Solar Activity Forecast: Solar activity is expected to be predominantly low, with a chance for isolated moderate flare activity during the next three days. Region 208 is a possible source of low level M-class flare activity. IIA. Geophysical Activity Summary 02/2100Z to 03/2100Z: The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit reached high levels again for the fifth consecutive day. IIB. Geophysical Activity Forecast: The geomagnetic field is expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled for the forecast period. Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geosynchronous orbit may persist at high levels for the next one to two days. III. Event Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec Class M 30/30/35 Class X 01/01/01 Proton 01/01/01 PCAF green IV. Penticton 10.7 cm Flux Observed 03 Dec 146 Predicted 04 Dec-06 Dec 150/165/170 90 Day Mean 03 Dec 169 V. Geomagnetic A Indices Observed Afr/Ap 02 Dec 009/011 Estimated Afr/Ap 03 Dec 010/012 Predicted Afr/Ap 04 Dec-06 Dec 010/012-005/010-005/010 VI. Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 04 Dec-06 Dec A. Middle Latitudes Active 20/15/15 Minor storm 05/01/01 Major-severe storm 01/01/01 B. High Latitudes Active 25/20/20 Minor storm 10/05/05 Major-severe storm 01/01/01