:Product: 20021205RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Dec 05 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 339 Issued at 2200Z on 05 Dec 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  04/2100Z
to 05/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate due to a single M-class
event during the period.  Region 213 (N14E50) produced an impulsive
M2/2n event, with associated tenflare and Type II/IV radio sweeps,
at 04/2249 UTC.  The region appears to be a relatively small sunspot
group with minor magnetic complexity, near the somewhat larger
Region 212 (N12E35) which remained quiescent during the period.
Single C- and B-class x-ray enhancements were also observed without
optical correlation later in the period, but otherwise the x-ray
emissions from the sun have remained relatively flat.  Two new
regions were numbered today:  214 (N12W27) and 215 (S18E74).  The
latter appears to be a return of old Region 191 (S18, L=203) but
limb proximity prevents detailed analysis.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with an increasing trend in chances for isolated
moderate flare activity over the course of the next three days.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 04/2100Z to 05/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  Flux levels for
greater than 2 MeV electrons at geosynchronous orbit were observed
to briefly exceed threshold for high values around the time of local
satellite noon.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled through day two of the forecast
period, with a trend toward more active conditions by day three, due
to expected coronal hole effects.  Greater than 2 MeV electron flux
at geosynchronous orbit is expected to be below the high value
threshold for the period.
III.  Event Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
Class M    30/30/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           05 Dec 149
Predicted   06 Dec-08 Dec  160/170/175
90 Day Mean        05 Dec  169
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 04 Dec  007/012
Estimated Afr/Ap 05 Dec  009/013
Predicted Afr/Ap 06 Dec-08 Dec  008/012-012/015-018/020
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 06 Dec-08 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/25/35
Minor storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/30/40
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/05