:Product: 20021206RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Dec 06 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 340 Issued at 2200Z on 06 Dec 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  05/2100Z
to 06/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 214 (N12W41)
produced a C2/Sf at 06/0856 UTC.  Region 214 exhibited gradual
growth in penumbral area and spot count.  Region 208 (N09W24) has
shown slight decay but maintained a beta-gamma magnetic
configuration.  Region 212 (N12E21) grew in spot count and has
developed into a Dao spot group.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
Isolated moderate activity is possible from Region 208, Region 212,
or Region 214.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 05/2100Z to 06/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  A sector
boundary crossing and coronal hole effects were observed late in the
day by the NASA/ACE spacecraft.  At about 06/1630 UTC solar wind
velocity increased to near 410 km/s and continues a gradual rise.
Greater than 2 MeV electron flux at geo-synchronous orbit reached
high levels for the eighth straight day.  GOES-8 values reached 8230
pfu today.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be at quiet to active levels.  The arrival of a coronal
hole and the possibility of shock effects from the M2 event on 04
November are expected to result in quiet to active conditions on day
one.  Coronal hole effects should continue through day two and three
of the forecast period with isolated active conditions possible.
III.  Event Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
Class M    30/30/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           06 Dec 148
Predicted   07 Dec-09 Dec  150/155/160
90 Day Mean        06 Dec 168
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 05 Dec  005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 06 Dec  008/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 07 Dec-09 Dec  012/015-015/020-012/015
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 07 Dec-09 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/30/20
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                30/35/25
Minor storm           10/15/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01