:Product: 20021207RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Dec 07 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 341 Issued at 2200Z on 07 Dec 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  06/2100Z
to 07/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  An optically
uncorrelated C2 flare occurred at 07/1000 UTC.   Region 208 (N09W38)
continues a gradual decay in area coverage and has simplified to a
beta magnetic configuration. Region 214 (N13W55) has grown slightly
in area coverage and developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration.
Weak polarity mixing has developed in the intermediate area.  No
other significant changes on the visible disk were observed in the
last twenty-four hours.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 06/2100Z to 07/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to active levels due to coronal
hole effects.  Solar wind velocities reached peak values near 600
km/s at 07/0900 UTC and have stabilized near 550 km/s.  The Bz
component of the interplanetary magnetic field has been
predominantly positive resulting in only isolated active conditions.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled with a chance of isolated active
conditions on day one and day two of the forecast period.  Quiet to
unsettled conditions are expected by day three.
III.  Event Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           07 Dec 151
Predicted   08 Dec-10 Dec  155/160/165
90 Day Mean        07 Dec 168
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 06 Dec  006/010
Estimated Afr/Ap 07 Dec  012/018
Predicted Afr/Ap 08 Dec-10 Dec  015/020-012/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 08 Dec-10 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                30/20/20
Minor storm           05/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/25/20
Minor storm           15/10/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01