:Product: 20021208RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Dec 08 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 342 Issued at 2200Z on 08 Dec 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  07/2100Z
to 08/2100Z:  Solar activity was at low levels.  Region 214(N13W70)
produced a C2  flare at 08/0825 UTC.  Region 212 (N14W05) has
developed a beta-gamma magnetic configuration due to weak polarity
mixing.  Three new regions were numbered today: Region 216 (S24W39),
Region 217 (N12E56), and Region 218 (S20E68)
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be at
low levels.  Region 212 and Region 214 are likely to produce C-class
events.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 07/2100Z to 08/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was at quiet to unsettled levels.  Solar wind
velocities remain elevated near 600 km/s and Bz continues to be
predominantly positive.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.  Coronal hole effects are
expected through day one of the period.  The greater than 2 MeV
electron flux may exceed event threshold on day two and three of the
forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           08 Dec 154
Predicted   09 Dec-11 Dec  155/150/150
90 Day Mean        08 Dec 167
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 07 Dec  008/016
Estimated Afr/Ap 08 Dec  010/015
Predicted Afr/Ap 09 Dec-11 Dec  012/015-010/012-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 09 Dec-11 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/20/20
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/00/00
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/25/25
Minor storm           10/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01