:Product: 20021211RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Dec 11 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 345 Issued at 2200Z on 11 Dec 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  10/2100Z
to 11/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Several small C-class flares
occurred, mostly in Region 220 (S12E21). This region has decayed
somewhat since yesterday. Other disk regions are small and
magnetically simple. New Region 222 (S06W03) emerged on the disk.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low.
A low-level M-class flare is possible in Region 220.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 10/2100Z to 11/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
Class M    25/25/25
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           11 Dec 152
Predicted   12 Dec-14 Dec  150/155/160
90 Day Mean        11 Dec 165
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 10 Dec  004/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 11 Dec  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 12 Dec-14 Dec  005/010-005/010-005/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 12 Dec-14 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/10
Minor storm           01/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/15
Minor storm           05/05/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01