:Product: 20021213RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Dec 13 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 347 Issued at 2200Z on 13 Dec 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  12/2100Z
to 13/2100Z:  Solar activity was low. Several C-class subflares were
observed from a number of regions. Flares occurred in Regions 220
(S12W06), 223 (N24E60), and 224 (S17E61). Flares were also observed
in new Regions 225 (N17E66) and 226 (S28E51). Region 220 continues
to simplify. The other regions of note appear to be either
relatively stable or growing. New Region 227 (N05E34) was also
numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate. A small M-class flare is possible in most of the
regions mentioned in Part IA (220,223,224,225,or 226).
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 12/2100Z to 13/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled.
III.  Event Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
Class M    30/30/30
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           13 Dec 167
Predicted   14 Dec-16 Dec  170/175/180
90 Day Mean        13 Dec 164
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 12 Dec  006/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 13 Dec  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 14 Dec-16 Dec  005/010-005/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 14 Dec-16 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                10/10/15
Minor storm           01/01/05
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                15/15/25
Minor storm           05/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01