:Product: 20021214RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Dec 14 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 348 Issued at 2200Z on 14 Dec 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  13/2100Z
to 14/2100Z:  Solar activity was low.  The rapidly emerging Region
226 (S28E39) produced frequent C-class flare events throughout the
period, the largest being a C3/1f at 14/0843 UTC.  Other regions
which produced C-class activity included 220 (S13W18), 223 (N23E46),
224 (S18E49) and 225 (N17E51).  Two new regions were numbered today:
Region 228 (S14E65) and 229 (N15E63).  The latter region is located
near Region 225, but magnetic field analysis suggests two distinct
bipolar spot groups in close proximity.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be
predominantly low, with a chance for isolated moderate activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 13/2100Z to 14/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled.  Solar wind data from
the ACE satellite suggested the development of high speed stream
effects over the course of the period, from a favorably positioned
coronal hole.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be mainly quiet to unsettled.  Isolated active periods
are possible through the first day of the forecast period due to
coronal hole effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
Class M    35/35/35
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           14 Dec 186
Predicted   15 Dec-17 Dec  185/190/195
90 Day Mean        14 Dec 164
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 13 Dec  002/007
Estimated Afr/Ap 14 Dec  008/009
Predicted Afr/Ap 15 Dec-17 Dec  012/015-010/010-010/010
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 15 Dec-17 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                20/15/15
Minor storm           05/01/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                25/15/15
Minor storm           10/05/01
Major-severe storm    01/01/01