:Product: 20021216RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Dec 16 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 350 Issued at 2200Z on 16 Dec 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  15/2100Z
to 16/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 225 (N17E23)
produced an M2/1n flare with associated Type-II and Type-IV radio
sweeps at 16/1115 UTC.  No CME was evident in LASCO imagery
following this event.  Other activity included numerous C-class
flares from several regions, notably from 226 (S28E12), 227
(N07W07), and 229 (N18E37).  All of today's flare producing regions
have shown some growth in size and/or magnetic complexity.  No new
regions were numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days.  The regions discussed in
section 1A above all appear to be possible sources for isolated
M-class flare activity.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 15/2100Z to 16/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was predominantly quiet, with some isolated
unsettled periods.  A gradual reduction in high speed stream effects
was apparent in data from the ACE satellite over the course of the
day.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next 24-36 hours.
Recurrent high speed stream effects are expected to develop on day
two, and affect geomagnetic activity with isolated active and
possible minor storm conditions, particularly on day three of the
forecast period.
III.  Event Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
Class M    45/45/45
Class X    01/01/01
Proton     01/01/01
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           16 Dec 203
Predicted   17 Dec-19 Dec  200/200/195
90 Day Mean        16 Dec 165
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 15 Dec  005/009
Estimated Afr/Ap 16 Dec  005/008
Predicted Afr/Ap 17 Dec-19 Dec  010/010-015/015-020/035
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 17 Dec-19 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                15/25/35
Minor storm           01/05/10
Major-severe storm    01/01/01
B.  High Latitudes
Active                20/35/45
Minor storm           05/10/15
Major-severe storm    01/01/01