:Product: 20021217RSGA.txt
:Issued: 2002 Dec 17 2200 UTC
# Prepared jointly by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA,
# Space Environment Center and the U.S. Air Force.
#
Joint USAF/NOAA Report of Solar and Geophysical Activity
SDF Number 351 Issued at 2200Z on 17 Dec 2002
IA.  Analysis of Solar Active Regions and Activity from  16/2100Z
to 17/2100Z:  Solar activity was moderate.  Region 226 (S18W01)
produced an M1.9/1n flare at 16/2255 UTC.  This region has continued
to grow in size and complexity, and appears to contain a magnetic
delta configuration in its intermediate spots.  Shortly following
the aforementioned flare, Region 227 (N07W20) produced a subfaint
optical flare that corresponded with an impulsive M1.3 x-ray
enhancement at 16/2336 UTC.  Other flare activity included several
C-class events from the regions noted above as well as Region 225
(N17E11).  New Region 230 (S08E59) was numbered today.
IB.  Solar Activity Forecast:  Solar activity is expected to be low
to moderate for the next three days.  A slight chance for an
isolated major flare event is possible, particularly from Region
226.
IIA.  Geophysical Activity Summary 16/2100Z to 17/2100Z:
The geomagnetic field was quiet, with one isolated unsettled period
at higher latitudes during 17/1500-1800 UTC.
IIB.  Geophysical Activity Forecast:  The geomagnetic field is
expected to be quiet to active during day one of the forecast
period, and predominantly active with isolated storming intervals
possible during the remainder of the period, due to the expected
onset of recurrent coronal hole effects.
III.  Event Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
Class M    50/50/50
Class X    05/05/05
Proton     05/05/05
PCAF       green
IV.  Penticton 10.7 cm Flux
Observed           17 Dec 213
Predicted   18 Dec-20 Dec  205/205/195
90 Day Mean        17 Dec 165
V.  Geomagnetic A Indices
Observed Afr/Ap 16 Dec  003/008
Estimated Afr/Ap 17 Dec  004/010
Predicted Afr/Ap 18 Dec-20 Dec  015/015-020/035-018/025
VI.  Geomagnetic Activity Probabilities 18 Dec-20 Dec
A.  Middle Latitudes
Active                25/35/30
Minor storm           05/10/10
Major-severe storm    01/05/05
B.  High Latitudes
Active                35/45/40
Minor storm           10/15/15
Major-severe storm    01/10/05